Application of the Box and Jenkins Method to the Time Series of Success Rates of State Examinations in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1967 to 2021

In this article, This is about present an analysis conducted on the time series of success rates in State Examinations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since its inception in 1967 until 2021, following the BOX and JENKINS methodology, which allows for obtaining a parsimonious ARIMA(0,1,2) Parcimony, the chosen model due to its familiarity with the presented data, has proved to be the only one to adhere to all the Box-Jenkins method steps for the series of State Exam pass rates in the DRC. At the conclusion of this study, short-term predictions calculated using the Evew12 software with first differencing applied indicate 56.1% for 2022, 61.64% in 2023, 61.61% in 2024, and 61.54% in 2025.

These forecasted results show upward trends and almost stability from 2023 to 2025.