Spatial Distribution of Public Lower Secondary School and its Impact on Students’ Enrolment in Ogun Central Senatorial District Ogun State, Nigeria

Given the quest for universal basic education, the large enrolments in the Nigerian secondary educational institutions has resulted in the problem of over-crowded classes, shortage of teachers and shortages of classroom, which portend enormous challenges to the development of the educational sector in Ogun state. Using Ogun Central as a case study, the study identified the spatial pattern of the schools; analyzing students’ enrolment trends in the area, and identifying the factors associated with the observed pattern. Spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS was used to analyze both the spatial accessibility index and the students’ annual enrolment trend of the lower secondary school in the area. The result of the nearest neighbor analysis for the spatial pattern of lower secondary schools in the study revealed a random pattern. This pattern implies that the lower secondary schools are located far from one another, which indicates, that for students to attend the schools, most of them need to cover long distances. The spatial distribution of junior secondary school is influenced by socioeconomic status, environmental factors, demographic characteristics, transportation infrastructure, and geographic accessibility, which are key determinants of educational equity. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify trends and predict future enrollments of students. Further, the results of the trend analysis of enrolments of students in the zone from 2020 – 2023 reveal a negative trend. This implies a decrease in students’ enrolment as the year increases. The four years (2020 – 2023) annual trend of enrolments in the zone is represented by the negative trend y = -3180.3x + 99400. This result suggests that the students’ enrolments in the zone would gradually keep decreasing as time goes on if quick remedial actions are not taken. However, factors such as shortage of teachers, shortage of classrooms, COVID-19, insufficient infrastructural facilities and fuel subsidy removal could be responsible for the negative enrolment trend